Scenario-Based Planning / North Dakota DOT
NDDOT adopted a new statewide long range transportation plan, Transportation Connection, in 2021. The plan featured scenario based planning to outline four potential futures for the state’s transportation network based on economic and social trends.
- Urban Growth - Population growth continues in urban areas, while the population in rural areas declines.
- Rapid Innovation - New technologies change how the transportation system is used.
- Rural Renaissance - The state’s population disperses to rural locations.
- Economic Challenges - Reduced budgets and travel demand change how NDDOT allocates funding.
These scenarios were used to explore potential changes in key drivers such as population, economy, development, technology, environment, policy, and risk. Stakeholder surveys were used to understand the likely transportation outcomes of each scenario and inform long-term strategy development.
NDDOT began developing its 2022 TAMP soon after publishing Transportation Connection. The agency wanted to consider how the scenarios developed in the long range plan might impact asset conditions and risks. To do this, the agency assessed how each scenario’s expected travel demands and funding capacities might impact asset deterioration and future programming. The results of this analysis were used to inform the performance analysis, by qualitatively indicating how conditions may improve or decline under each scenario. This assessment was then used to inform investment strategy development. Figure 2 provides a summary of the performance gap analysis results.
Figure 2. NDDOT 2022 TAMP Performance Gap Analysis Results.
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